Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of REALTORS (MIBOR) CEO Steve Sullivan was invited by the Indianapolis Star to author an article about central Indiana’s current housing market. The editorial piece appeared in yesterday’s Homescape section. The full text of the piece appears here.
A Real World View of Real EstateReal estate has been in the news more prominently over the last two years than maybe anytime in history. One of the reasons for that prominence is simply the speed with which news is transmitted these days. Secondly, much of that news has been of the negative headline-making variety. The barrage of information begins to confuse consumers and leave them with emotion rather than fact.
As we examine residential real estate in the Indianapolis market, we need to keep in mind that first and foremost, like politics, all real estate is local. It’s been said that trying to accurately describe an entire nation’s housing market is like trying to give a national weather forecast. It simply can’t be done.
It’s important to remember that housing is not just any commodity. It’s shelter, and along with food and clothing, one of the three basic human needs. This simplification isn’t meant to underestimate the investment aspect of homeownership. Obviously homeownership has been – and continues to be – a viable source of wealth building.
In central Indiana, more than 70 percent of households elect to own a home. This is largely due to the fact that Indianapolis is one of the most affordable markets in the United States, a standing confirmed by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index when it named Indianapolis the most affordable major U.S. housing market for a 10th consecutive time in the fourth quarter of 2007. As a percentage of household income, the cost to own a home in the Indianapolis area is in the top five percent of the markets in our country.
In addition, home sale price in central Indiana has increased in every year but five in the last 25. Overall, the increase in housing prices during that same period of time is up 80 percent.
Like any product or commodity, housing prices are determined by simple laws of supply and demand. Demand in housing is generally triggered by attractive financing, low interest rates, population increases and household income stability and/or increases. Supply, or the availability of housing, is generally determined by the quantity of all homes placed on the market, those individuals moving up in the housing continuum, and an out migration of households reducing population.
Where are we in the spring of 2008? On the supply side, new home construction has decreased dramatically over the last two years, thereby reducing inventory levels. While those inventory levels are high enough to offer broad choices in price ranges, they are not excessive. With a few exceptions scattered throughout the state of Indiana, there is no real out migration of households from our market area.
Consider local housing demand to draw further conclusions about the condition of this housing market. Mortgage interest rates remain historically low. Household incomes in central Indiana have remained steady. Job prospects appear to be promising as we look forward to the next several years. Those jobs, through both retention and attraction, will be the biggest factor in the demand for housing in the next few years. That demand will determine the impact on housing prices.
I’d argue that the facts of our local housing market history and the economic principles at play mean more in regard to a true understanding of the housing market than the fast and furious media reports can illustrate. It may be that breaking the facts down into these simple economic principles will provide the best outlook for the future of this market.